Friday, July 29, 2011

The latest on the "Shadow Inventory"

This information was provided by CoreLogic and shows the extent of the shadow inventory. The blue shows the pending REO inventory, the brown is the foreclosure inventory, and the purple is the pending Serious Delinquency Inventory. The bad news is that we have such a large distressed inventory and the good news is that we have actually had a 20% reduction in the shadow inventory. We are digging our way out of the hole but there is still a long way to go.

In a future post I will show which states are most affected by the shadow and inventory.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Prices on the Rise!

Things just keep looking up! My last chart showed the increase in the number of units sold. This chart shows the increase in the median sale price, and it is a mirror image of the units sold. For a long time this was an unreliable indicator. Because of the limitations on financing most of our sales were concentrated in the lower price ranges and when the financing loosened it appeared that the average price range was increasing when in fact we were selling more expensive homes. We have been able to get financing in all price ranges over the last year. Now the average and median sale price are beginning to have some relation to reality and once again be used as a general gauge to the health of the market.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Case-Shiller indices

The latest (July) Case-Shiller report was released today. It can be accessed HERE.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Loudoun & Fairfax County units sold!

The market takes a turn!

The most important indicator of the health of a real estate market is the number of sold transactions. In the Northern Virginia market the sold volume has been declining since the sub-prime market imploded. The chart above indicates a radical departure from that pattern in June for both Loudoun and Fairfax Counties! IF THIS CONTINUES WE HAVE PROBABLY SEEN THE MARKET BOTTOM!

Monday, July 18, 2011


Welcome to the new blog of the Stakem Report! I am changing from the print format, to the blog format, to provide more timely information on a regular basis. Initially we will be covering Loudoun County and Western Fairfax County, eventually expanding into the entire Northern Virginia market. I hope you enjoy this new format and look forward to providing you with information.